Success or failure of sustainability transition policies. A framework for the evaluation and assessment of policies in complex systems

Since 2001, Dutch transition policy has been in place to govern long-term environmental policy for sustainable system innovation. Dutch environmental policy is subject to regular monitoring and policy evaluation, but the development of a conceptually sound evaluation tool for transition policies remains to be resolved. Key difficulties are the systemic character of anticipated changes, the long range of policy goals, and the inclusiveness of other effects. These difficulties renders policy attribution and evaluation of effects, costs and benefits difficult to impossible. Building upon insights from complexity science and innovation studies, this paper aims to contribute to the development of an evaluation tool for transition policies. It is recognized that transitions are fundamental changes of socio-technical regimes to more sustainable configurations of complex adaptive systems. Main features of complex adaptive systems are: the presence of multiple stable states and thresholds, and recognition of dynamics in terms of evolutionary changes in line with an adaptive cycle. In line with these main features, we elaborate on the policy consequences and we distinguish a coherent set of process-oriented indicators for policy assessment.